Market Watch Reports

We provide an in-depth look at how our markets are performing on a quarterly basis.

Our quarterly Market Watch reports offer a comprehensive picture of the residential real estate markets we serve in Connecticut, Westchester County, N.Y., Columbia County, N.Y., and the Berkshires, Mass. These reports serve as an invaluable resource for consumers, real estate professionals, financial institutions, the media, and anyone else interested in the housing market.


Q3 2024 Market Watch

As we enter the final months of 2024, we are seeing the trends we observed in our last two quarterly reports continue as expected along the same trajectory. Throughout the first two quarters of 2024 we watched as our housing markets increasingly experienced growth in closed dollar volume for single family homes year over year, and that trend has maintained in most every market at the close of the third quarter. Single family unit sales are lower than last year across our markets, as was the case in the prior two quarters, largely due to the limited inventory for sale. But even if inventory is low relative to historic levels, it continues to improve in most areas.

 


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Archived Reports

First Half 2024 Market Watch

During the second quarter of 2024, our housing markets experienced the continuation of a promising trend that emerged at the start of the year. Last quarter, we observed increases in closed dollar volume in single family home sales across many of our markets, a notable turnaround following several consecutive quarters of consistent declines. But this quarter almost every market has now climbed ahead of the first six months of last year in closed volume. Closed unit sales were largely down year over year last quarter and remain so as we finish the first half of the year. Standing inventory levels have been increasing for a few months now following years of declines, so that at the end of the first half of 2024, almost every territory we serve now has more listings for sale than at this time in 2023. The increase in standing inventory suggests that our typically low-inventory markets have bottomed out and begun to normalize.

 

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Q1 2024 Market Watch

In our housing markets, the first quarter of 2024 played out similarly to the past several quarters according to most key metrics except one: in a striking turnaround, closed sales volume for single family properties increased in several territories compared to the same quarter last year. Closed unit sales generally remain lower than this time in 2023, and inventory is still in significantly short supply in many areas, but closed dollar volume often improved. We predicted such an outcome last quarter, observing that sales declines were trending in a positive direction, tracking at percentage decreases that were not quite as steep as prior quarters. Now, it appears that our markets have finally bottomed out and could start to see an upswing.

 

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2023 Year in Review Market Watch

As we close a year where significantly reduced sales and inventory levels served as the norm in our housing markets, the fourth quarter saw us entering a period of transition. Just as new listings arriving on the market began to improve compared to this time in 2022, single family unit closings and dollar volume also demonstrated notable improvement relative to the past several quarters. Throughout the year, declines in closed dollar volume have tracked at lower and lower rates from quarter to quarter. This steady trajectory signifies that the next quarter is finally likely to see sales growth instead of more decreases. Recently declining mortgage rates also serve as a good indicator that our upward trend in new listings taken will continue into 2024.

 

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Q3 2023 Market Watch

The key dynamics impacting our housing markets have demonstrated little change as the year has progressed. Quarter after quarter, the situation has remained the same: The combination of historically low inventory and elevated buyer demand is driving a competitive buying landscape and sending new listings quickly into contract, leaving a scarcity of offerings to choose from and keeping median sale prices well above this time last year. At the same time, significantly higher mortgage rates are not only affecting buyers’ purchasing power but also influencing the decision process for potential sellers as they consider listing. Despite the inventory challenge, there are glimmers on the horizon that sales will improve according to our company’s data.

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First Half 2023 Market Watch

The housing markets in the second quarter of 2023 performed similarly to the first, with declining single-family property sales and limited inventory. However, a competitive buying environment and elevated consumer demand kept sale prices higher than last year. While the markets are behind last year’s performance, there is anticipation of improvement in the second half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Median sale prices remain higher in most markets, but the lack of inventory remains a significant challenge.

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Q1 2023 Market Watch

It is rare to witness all the dynamics currently impacting our housing markets play out at once. There have been periods of higher mortgage rates, fragility in the economy, declining sales, increased prices, low inventory and strong buyer demand, but not necessarily all at the same time. Yet this is the environment in which we find ourselves as we close out the first quarter of 2023. Closed sales volume and units decreased significantly versus the same quarter last year in every market we serve, but the declines are not for lack of buyer demand. One of the most significant reasons for the drop-off in sales is the ongoing shortage of inventory.

 

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2022 Year in Review Market Watch

While our housing markets have consistently demonstrated declines in 2022 on a quarterly basis compared to 2021, the final quarter of the year experienced a steeper drop-off, driven by a confluence of factors. These ranged from low inventory to inflation, higher mortgage rates and other economic concerns. Yet even in the face of these odds, we still see reason for optimism heading into the new year. Real estate is, by nature, local, and our markets may not be entirely reflective of national trends—especially since we benefit from our unique location close to New York City. In addition, our markets are continuing to perform above historical pre-pandemic norms.

 

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Q3 2022 Market Watch

Year to date, each of our markets has experienced lower single family housing units and dollar volume closed than the first nine months of last year. After a two-year period of exceedingly robust sales activity from 2020 to 2021, a surface level analysis may suggest the markets have taken a turn. But as we have frequently discussed, within that two-year period was one of the most productive real estate markets of our lifetimes. If 2021 was the best performing market in recent memory, and 2020 kicked off this unprecedented period with the onset of the pandemic, then the last market we saw that can be considered normal was in 2019. Using 2019 as a benchmark shows how far ahead of a normal market we still are. The conclusions we’ve drawn point to ongoing buyer demand and a strong fall real estate market.
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Q2 2022 Market Watch

Despite projections of a housing downturn nationally, our own markets continue to see heightened activity due to our proximity to New York City. Higher mortgage rates and inflation will impact buyers’ purchasing power, and other economic indicators are mixed, but median sale prices are still increasing across all our markets, driven by low housing supply and high buyer demand. The combination of an inventory shortage and a record-breaking sales period in 2021 resulted in quarterly and year to date sales declines this year.
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Q1 2022 Market Watch

Low inventory is severely affecting the housing market, leaving sales trailing behind this time last year. Buyer demand remains elevated and combined with limited inventory is helping to fuel a competitive purchasing environment with increasing prices. Higher price segments in several areas are not experiencing the same sales declines as the overall market, indicating movement in the upper end. Our metrics point to an active market in the months ahead, though economic factors such as inflation could have an impact on real estate.
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2021 Year in Review Market Watch

While our housing markets in the second half of 2021 could not compete with last year’s massive gains from the same period, we still outperformed historical norms. Significant sales increases during the first six months of 2021, versus the same time frame in 2020, led many of our markets to finish the year ahead of the prior year. Buyer demand remains high in the suburbs, particularly from New York City residents, but limited inventory is affecting sales. At the same time, with prices on the rise, more properties are selling in higher price segments. Economic indicators suggest the market will remain highly active for the foreseeable future.

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Q3 2021 Market Watch

While our housing markets in the third quarter of 2021 could not compete with last year’s massive third quarter gains, we still outperformed historical norms. Buyer demand remains high in the suburbs, particularly from New York City residents, but limited inventory is affecting sales. At the same time, with prices on the rise, more properties are selling in higher price segments. Economic indicators suggest the market will remain highly active for the foreseeable future.
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Q2 2021 Market Watch

Our housing markets remain far ahead of last year, both year to date and quarter over quarter. Buyer demand is high and remains much greater than the supply of homes available can accommodate. This phenomenon has sent prices surging over this time last year, with more middle and upper end property transactions. We are consistently witnessing closed dollar volume gains exceeding closed unit sales by 30 to 40%. This same spread between dollars and units is also reflected in the new inventory arriving. And although overall inventory levels may be down, there were more new listings taken this quarter than the same period in 2020. These homes are turning over so rapidly that overall inventory levels remain low.
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Q1 2021 Market Watch

Before the onset of the pandemic last March, the first quarter of 2020 was a time of brisk sales, with single family unit closings and dollar volume soaring over the same period the prior year. But if that was a strong quarter in normal times, we are truly in unprecedented territory now. In the first three months of 2021, closed unit sales and volume in most of our markets increased dramatically over that notably robust first quarter of 2020.
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2020 Year in Review Market Watch

In a normal year, December would see the housing market begin to slow for the holidays—but this year was anything but normal. It was an especially consequential one for real estate, with the unprecedented sales activity our markets experienced in its second half surging through the year’s end. During the third and fourth quarters of 2020, single family home sales and dollar volume increased by double and sometimes even triple digit percentages on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis versus the same periods of the prior year in every market our company serves.

We also monitored pending sales throughout the year and saw similar increases. Residential contracts soared over the summer and fall to record heights and remained at these levels as the year concluded. The pipeline of contracts potentially will lead us into an enormous first quarter in closed sales.

We attribute the unrivaled activity in our marketplaces to the ongoing pandemic and its ramifications across all facets of people’s lives, as discussed in greater detail in the report. Please read our 2020 Year in Review Market Watch for our full analysis.

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3Q20 Market Watch

For almost two months during the second quarter of 2020, our housing markets were severely impacted as the pandemic shut down the economy and residential real estate transactions nearly ground to a halt. In light of the substantial declines we experienced throughout much of the second quarter, it is all the more remarkable how dramatically sales eclipsed those of 2019 by the end of the third.
 
Residential contracts surged to unprecedented heights in July, August and September in every territory we serve. Dollar volume increases are higher than unit sales in every market, pointing to more activity at higher prices. We believe the primary driver for this unrivaled sales surge is the significant increase in New Yorkers relocating from the city to the suburbs as the pandemic continues. Consumer confidence also made a notable comeback in September, experiencing its largest rebound in 17 years.
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2Q20 Market Watch

It’s no secret that New Yorkers are relocating from the city to the suburbs in the face of the pandemic and ongoing social unrest. New York buyers are out in record numbers seeking housing in our suburban markets including Westchester County, Connecticut and the Berkshires, Massachusetts, while listings under contract and property showings are surging over this time last year. We believe buyer demand will be unparalleled in the months to come. Yet the supply of inventory is severely limited to meet this demand. Sellers who choose this moment to list will likely experience a level of buyer interest unmatched in recent memory.

In this special edition of our quarterly market report, we analyze pending sales and key factors including density of population and housing units in New York City versus the suburbs. Please read the full report and watch the video to find out why properties in our markets are trading at an unprecedented rate.

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1Q20 Market Watch

Coming off a strong back half of 2019, all of the areas where we do business witnessed significant gains over the same time the prior year, with closed unit sales and dollar volume experiencing notable increases across the board. And yet, considering the dramatic impact of COVID-19 throughout the world, the real estate market’s performance in the first quarter is not the story we are focused on right now. The world we live in has fundamentally changed, beginning in the final weeks of the quarter. Please read our 2020 First Quarter Market Watch for a more detailed review.

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2019 Market Watch

Our housing markets gained momentum in the second half of 2019, picking up speed from a quieter first half in most regions. Single family home sales in the third and fourth quarters demonstrated improvement over the same quarters the prior year in several markets, with even the upper end exhibiting positive signs in areas where the luxury segment has been stagnant for a prolonged period. The gains of the past six months provide us with reason for cautious optimism as we kick into gear for 2020. Please read our 2019 Year in Review Market Watch for our full analysis.

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3Q19 Market Watch

The third quarter of 2019 saw real improvement over the first two quarters of the year, and in many markets it was the first quarter to experience sales growth in single family homes over the same period the prior year since 2017. Even the upper end experienced a turnaround in certain areas where the luxury segment has been stagnant for some time now. The gains we witnessed across our markets, though based on one quarter alone, leave us cautiously optimistic moving forward. Please read our 2019 Third Quarter Market Watch for our full analysis.

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2Q19 Market Watch

A general decline in real estate sales across most of the markets we serve continued in the second quarter of 2019, though market performance varied across regions and price points. The key economic indicators that continually serve as our guidepost, including low unemployment, historically low interest rates, a healthy stock market and elevated consumer confidence, provide reason for optimism as we head into the second half of the year. Please read our 2019 Second Quarter Market Watch for our full analysis.

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1Q19 Market Watch

The first quarter of 2019 saw a general decline in real estate sales across most of the markets we serve, similar to the phenomenon we observed at this time last year. The picture varied across regions and price points. Yet the key economic indicators that continually serve as our guidepost, including low unemployment, historically low interest rates, a healthy stock market and elevated consumer confidence, provide reason for optimism as we head into the second quarter. Please read our 2019 First Quarter Market Watch for our full analysis.

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2018 Market Watch

2018 began with virtually every market our company serves experiencing sales decreases in single family home sales versus the first quarter the prior year, a notable trend considering it had been several years since we observed a similar phenomenon. Yet the year painted a more positive picture by the time it reached its conclusion. Many of our markets climbed ahead of 2017 by year’s end, while others trailed only slightly behind. When declines occurred, they were modest. Our Westchester and Fairfield County markets saw modest decreases in unit sales and dollar volume, while the Connecticut Shoreline saw minimal decreases in unit sales even as dollar volume improved. Litchfield and Berkshire Counties experienced sales growth and the Farmington Valley was flat with steady sales. Please read our 2018 Year in Review Market Watch for our full analysis.

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3Q18 – Market Watch

2018 has been an unusual year for our housing markets. We began the year with every market we serve experiencing small decreases in either unit sales or dollar volume, or both, versus the first quarter of 2017. At that time we attributed this pause in the marketplace to uncertainty surrounding the tax reform bill that passed in late 2017. Then, in the second quarter the story began to change: certain areas started to catch up to or even exceed the first half of 2017, while others remained behind. The third quarter found us trending even further in a positive direction. Westchester and Fairfield Counties, while still behind 2017, appear to be closing the gap, even as the Shoreline along with Litchfield and Berkshire Counties climbed ahead of the prior year, and the Farmington Valley stood nearly flat. Please read our 2018 Third Quarter Market Watch for our full analysis.

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2Q18 – Market Watch

While the first quarter of 2018 was consistently down in unit sales and dollar volume compared to the same period the prior year, the second was more notable for its inconsistency from market to market. Certain areas remain behind the first half of 2017, while others are catching up or even exceeding the prior year. The drop off in unit sales in many markets was more a result of low inventory than low demand, and in several areas the high end is showing promising activity. Properties under contract overall, though not in every region, are increasing year over year, suggesting many markets will potentially recover some lost ground by year’s end. Please read our 2018 Second Quarter Market Watch for a more detailed analysis.

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1Q18 – Market Watch

The new year started with small but consistent sales declines versus the first quarter last year. While the passage of the new tax bill at the end of 2017 may have helped to prompt a pause in buyer activity during the fourth quarter, reflected in the lower rate of closings in the first quarter, economic indicators including consumer confidence, GDP, unemployment, job growth, interest rates and the stock market all point to an ongoing strong foundation for the real estate market. Please read our 2018 First Quarter Market Watch for a more detailed analysis, and to find out about your community.

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2017 Market Watch

Virtually every market we cover finished the year with dollar volume and units sold either ahead of or even with 2016, itself a strong year in sales that observed significant increases over the year prior. Although there may be unanswered questions surrounding the new tax bill and its potential impact on the real estate market, the tried and true economic indicators that have always served as our compass are still going strong and leave us feeling optimistic about what lies ahead. Please read our Annual 2017 Market Watch for a more detailed analysis, and to find out about your community.

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3Q17 – Market Watch

The third quarter saw most of our markets either holding steady or trending ahead compared to the same time last year, with few exceptions. Overall, the areas we serve remain healthy with robust sales activity, leaving us well positioned for a strong finish for the year as we head into the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of the economy, which we refer to as our “True North,” remain strong and point to continued momentum in the housing market. Please read our Third Quarter 2017 Market Watch for a more detailed analysis.

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2Q17 – Market Watch

Our market areas entered the second quarter with a solid head of steam built on a solid finish to the fourth quarter of 2016 and a strong first quarter in 2017. For the year-to-date, the real estate markets are up in the communities we serve, and all the economic signs that affect real estate are holding steady or improving. Please read our Second Quarter 2017 Market Watch for a more detailed analysis, and to find out about your community.

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1Q17 – Market Watch

Our housing markets had an excellent first quarter, with most areas posting increases in both sales volume and unit sales compared to the same period last year. Across the board buyers are entering the marketplace in droves, many prompted by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes and projected further increases for this year. With the markets so active and the prime real estate season just around the corner, we are confident the momentum will persist. Please read our First Quarter 2017 Market Watch for a more detailed analysis.

2016 Year End Market Watch

2016 was another exceptional year for real estate in our market areas, with the majority experiencing healthy gains in units and sales volume year over year. The promising data is mirrored on the national scene, and the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike, a signal of faith in the economy, has created a sense of urgency, with buyers jumping off the sidelines and into the market in droves—an indication that 2017 is already off to a strong start. Please read our Annual 2016 Market Watch for a more detailed analysis, and to find out about your community.

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3Q16 Market Watch

After a very robust first six months, with unit sales and dollar volume higher in the majority of the markets we serve, the third quarter saw our markets realigning more closely with how they performed last year. While we may experience fluctuations, healthy economic indicators from high consumer confidence to ongoing low mortgage rates suggest that the market should remain an active place for some time to come. Since every market is different, please read our Third Quarter 2016 Market Watch to find out about your community.

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2Q16 Market Watch

After a very robust first quarter, the second quarter held steady so that the first half of the year closed out with unit sales significantly up compared to the first half of 2015 in the majority of our markets, and sales volume higher in most areas as well. With the overall picture one of good health, we remain bullish that 2016 will prove another strong year in sales. Since every market is different, please read our Second Quarter 2016 Market Watch to find out about your community.

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1Q16 Market Watch

Our housing markets have been an active place for some time now, and that trend continued unabated throughout the first quarter of 2016. Unit sales are up year over year in every area we serve—dramatically up, in some cases—and we have every reason to believe the momentum will persist throughout the second quarter and the remainder of the year. Since every market is different, please read our First Quarter 2016 Market Watch to find out about your community.

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2015 Market Watch

Strong overall annual sales in our local housing markets in 2015 led us to end the year on a high note. Single family home sales achieved their highest levels since 2007 in most areas, and with the improving economy and low interest rates, we expect to continue to see growth across the broad home buying spectrum throughout 2016. Since every market is different, please read our Annual 2015 Market Watch to find out about your community.

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3Q15 Market Watch

In the third quarter of 2015, our local housing markets experienced significantly higher sales than the same period a year ago, with some areas mirroring the height of the market in 2004 and 2005. Consumer confidence in the economy as a whole continues to grow and help propel our markets, which are functioning efficiently with sustained demand and well-qualified buyers. Since every market is different, please read our Third Quarter 2015 Market Watch to find out about your community.

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2Q15 Market Watch

At the mid-point of 2015 our local real estate markets are performing well with strong, sustainable sales activity, good foot traffic and in most communities, transaction volume exceeding 2014 levels. We believe that year-to-date sales growth represents a sustainable trajectory, and that sales will continue to strengthen through the rest of the year, building on growing consumer optimism.

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1Q15 – Market Watch

Buyers and sellers alike were active in our local housing markets during the first quarter of 2015, with many areas experiencing their highest sales levels in multiple years. Overall, our markets are in an excellent position to move forward into the prime selling season, with first quarter sales results signaling a strong second quarter and rest of the year.

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2013 Market Watch

The pace of the housing recovery picked up speed in 2013, and by year’s end activity spread to encompass previously quiet segments of the market including the luxury, new construction and even raw land segments. Condominiums and co-ops experienced particularly strong volume growth, breaking the trend of previous years and satisfying pent-up demand. The housing market appears to be stronger and more sustainable than it has for five years, and we believe that it will only continue to improve in 2014.

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1Q14 Market Watch

Home sales in the first quarter of 2014 built upon the strong 2013 annual sales results. Of particular note was the heightened demand for properties in the mid to upper price ranges as well as new construction. The ultra-luxury segment, defined as properties at the top of the market in terms of price, was relatively quiet. We believe this was due in large part to the harsh winter’s sub-optimal showing conditions, which impacted the introduction of new inventory.

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2Q14 Market Watch

After experiencing significant improvement for the past two years, the housing market has at last leveled off with unit and dollar sales year to date on track with the same period last year in most markets. We believe that the current period of more moderated yet sustainable growth is a healthy one, and we are optimistic that our housing markets will remain vibrant throughout the rest of the year. Please read the Second Quarter 2014 Market Watch for our full report.

 

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3Q14 Market Watch

For both the quarter and the year we are seeing transaction volume very similar to 2013 levels and far ahead of 2012 and 2011. The market is stable and the fundamentals are in place to end the year approximately even with 2013 on a unit basis and slightly higher on a dollar basis due to the strengthening upper end. Holding onto the gains of last year and building a firm foundation to grow both unit and dollar volume in 2015 is our goal for the remainder of the year.

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2014 Market Watch

2014 was the year we secured the robust gains of 2013, positioning us for strong future growth. Our metro New York markets concluded the year with unit sales very close to 2013’s vibrant levels, making it the second best year for home sales in the past seven. All indicators point to 2015 being an excellent year of continued forward movement.

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